| Comparing pathogen growth against death rate | Using nested models, it was shown that in order to maXimise the epidemiological (between-host) reproductive ratio R0 , increasing the growth rate might not always be the best option for a pathogen because it shortens the duration of the infection. |
| Comparing pathogen growth against death rate | Principally, [27] aimed to determine the longterm R0 across a population, while our model concerns the emergence of new strains intra-host. |
| Comparing pathogen growth against death rate | In addition, [27] used deterministic equations, and did not investigate the stochastic emergence of new strains (that is, whether those with a smaller R0 are likely to emerge if they appear at a low frequency). |
| Formulating emergence probability | To give an example, when applied to a model of pathogen emergence in an SIR setting, the effective reproductive ratio Rl< would equal the standard reproductive ratio R0 , reduced by a factor So/N, if there initially existed So susceptible individuals out of a total population of size N. There would also be a term in the denominator that is proportional to the rate of spread of the initial, unmutated strain. |
| Model outline | We use the notation R1 to draw parallels between the scaled pathogenic replication rate, and the reproductive ratio R0 in population-level, epidemiological models [32]. |
| Abrupt and gradual shifts in reach direction as a consequence of optimal control under goal uncertainty | how r0 varies as a function of time since the target jump). |
| Abrupt and gradual shifts in reach direction as a consequence of optimal control under goal uncertainty | where r0 = 0. |
| Optimal action selection amid evolving uncertainty about task goals | We used the value function at t = 0 to determine the optimal initial reach angle x0* for each possible initial belief r0 , i.e. |